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Operations & systems
Ambulance demand peaks at 9pm
Circadian and Seasonal Patterns of Recorded Emergency Medical Service Workload by Diagnostic Category: A Two-Year Retrospective Analysis with Forecasting from Türkiye
Prehospital and Disaster Medicine · 2026 · Added 17 October 2026
A two-year Turkish analysis of 60,811 EMS case records found demand peaked at 21:00 at 3.53 times the 06:00 trough, with circadian rhythmicity in all seven clinical groups and workable short-term demand forecasts.
- Study type
- Cohort
- Design
- Retrospective analysis with cosinor and ARIMA forecasting
- Participants
- 60,811 EMS case records over 731 days
- Main finding
- Volume peaked at 21:00 (adjusted 3.53× the 06:00 low, 95% CI 3.28–3.81); circadian rhythms detected in all seven clinical groups; frozen 2024 forecasts transferred to 2025
- Caveat
- Case-record volume as a proxy for demand, single province, and low explained variance for hour-date variation
- Bottom line
- Context only
Why it matters in Australia (Medium relevance). A Turkish provincial system, but diurnal and seasonal demand rhythms are operationally relevant to Australian ambulance rostering and demand planning.
Learning goal
Understand how circadian and seasonal demand patterns shape ambulance resource planning across Australian systems.
More
- Topic: Operations & systems
- Daily scan: 17 October 2026
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